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Optimism didn't last on Markets after China lower Rates

Optimism didn't last on Markets after China lower Rates

SPX gave back the gains at the end of the day, because investors lost conviction that an early rally had legs. Risk-On sentiment didn't last after China decreased rates. Fears of inflation and higher interest rates in accordance with Geo-Political conflict between Ukraine & Russia have sent markets in red at end of the session.

Concern that the Federal Reserve will aggressively move to raise rates this year is a much more powerful catalyst than Chinese bank intervention and stocks Earnings. Investors have been concerned about rising rates because they raise borrowing costs and could dent global growth prospects and douse the earnings outlook for companies.

Analysts at ING said geopolitical risks, notably the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, could continue to add to pressure on rising rates concerns.

Gold & Silver touched new highs lifted by worries surrounding inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Gold 1,842 & Silver 24.63 gains were unexpected in the short term when bonds are up and Interest rates are expected to grow but geopolitical context is also an important catalyst.

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Disappointing Results push Stocks lower

Disappointing Results push Stocks lower

Yesterday markets were down with over 2% because disappointing Earning Results from banks like JPMorgan & Citi Bank. We are still waiting results of other big banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America. Morgan Stanley, to see if the lower trend will continue this week. The key driver to the current action in the stock market remains the spike in bond yields and announced Increased Rates. This Year stocks will be dealing with the highest inflation rate since the late 1970s, excessively high valuations, and an aggressive policy change by the Fed. 

2022 it's a year of challenge for stocks because we have to deal with:

  • Lower Profit margin 
  • To high valuations
  • Less liquidity in the economy 
  • Higher inflation 
  • Weaker economic growth
  • Weak consumer confidence due to inflation
  • Flattening yield curve
  • Lower earnings growth
  • Weaker economic data than 2021
  • Tighter monetary policy
  • Reduced consumption

 
Technically, Stocks broke below yesterday Trend Support Line with momentum and also Vix is UP. Tech Stock was affected badly losing over 3,3% 

SPX Down


SPX DOWN IN January 2022
Stocks still have room to move lower from here. We have recommended to buy Agricultural commodities in November and Soybean it's up with 6%.

Soybean Growth 


 

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We Anticipate a Food Crisis in 2022. How to protect your investments in case of a Food Crisis

We Anticipate a Food Crisis in 2022. How to protect your investments in case of a Food Crisis

The news about higher prices of food abounds in online stream media. Agricultural prices will go higher in 2022 and will have a significant impact on CPI. The main reason of higher agricultural prices in 2022 are Shortage of Fertilizers. Fertilizers prices have grown up this year because of the higher prices of gas and transportation disruptions.

Fertilizer shortage

Crops benefit more from fertilizer treatments in the early phases of the planting season. Delayed or missed application during the cycle will almost certainly result in lower yields, which tightens the food supply and drives the prices up.

Transportation disruptions because of Covid19 outbreak has affected also delivery of parts for agricultural machinery. Many farmers acquired some agricultural machinery components from over 1000 km distance. Farmers from Ukraine – the main corn producer in Europe – bought agricultural machinery parts from Austria or Germany with considerable time delays (over three months). Many farmers are purchasing parts in advance for safekeeping.

U.S. farmers appear pessimistic. Agricultural producer sentiment has started to decline in recent months. The sentiment for future conditions is now nearly as low as it was in the peak economic closure of the 2020 pandemic. Farmers have expressed concern over high input costs – i.e., fertilizer prices – weakening their operating margins.

farmer Sentiment 2021

We play this trade idea to buy Agricultural Funds like:

  • Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
  • Elements Linked to the Rogers International Commodity Index — Agriculture Total Return ETN (RJA)
  • Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN)

For European traders, we have limited opportunities via Lyxor Commodities Refinitiv / CoreCommodity CRB EX-Energy TR UCITS ETF – Acc (CRN). Lyxor is a fund with over 56% exposure on agricultural products, and also precious metals (11.78%) and commodities stocks (11.35%).

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Rebound in Platinum or Palladium, or it is just a fake move?!

Rebound in Platinum or Palladium, or it is just a fake move?!

Do we have the opportunity to buy Palladium and Platinum right now, since the price dropped over 22% from all time high?!?

Prices are very attractive if we look on the charts below, but Fundamental Analysis tells another story:

  • Palladium is used primarily as an emissions purifier for gasoline engines cars
  • Platinum is used in the same way for diesel cars    
  • Auto sector is continuing facing challenges due to micro-chip shortage
  • Electric cars & hybrid technology are on the wave

We, personally, don not like to take trades without a fundamental catalyst or in opposition to Fundamental Outlook. From a technical point of view, we have interest in this trade but just for a very short time (a few days trade duration).

It's wise to wait a recovery in car sales and, after that, just take this trade.

What is your opinion regarding rebounding in Platinum or Palladium, or it is only a fake move?!


Plladiun rebound trade

Plattinium rebound

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Société Generale see GOLD down next year to 1.75

Société Generale see GOLD down next year to 1.75
  • We still remain slightly supportive in the near-term as we expect monetary and fiscal policy to remain highly accommodative but our conviction levels are simply pinned to our expectation that ETF outflows do not continue and we have some moderate inflows by the end of the year.
  • With positive economic readings and in particular, positive jobs data market participants appear to be focused on the prospect of an earlier than anticipated interest rate hike. While real rates are still expected to be negative, any expectation that this could turn positive faster would really dampen investment flows.
  • Our base case scenario is for gold prices to average $1,750 on average in 2022 as investment flows drop further.
  • In the upside price scenario (which is the downside economic scenario), we forecast prices rising to $2,100/oz whereas the downside risk to prices (on the upside economic scenario) is limited and prices could fall to $1,600/oz.

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Hurricane Ida is closing crude output 1.74mln bpd

Hurricane Ida  is closing  crude output 1.74mln bpd

Oil producers have shut-in 95.65% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output totalling 1.74mln bpd and 93.75% of natgas production, while the Colonial Pipeline announced it will temporarily shut fuel lines from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina and Marathon Petroleum's Garyville, Louisiana refinery (556k bpd) was also shut down over the weekend. US President Biden said Hurricane Ida is life threatening with the devastation likely to be immense and beyond the coasts, while he added they are planning for the worst from the hurricane and that it would take weeks for some places to restore power following the hurricane. Furthermore, President Biden later declared a major disaster for Louisiana and Entergy announced that all of New Orleans had lost power due to catastrophic transmission damage from Hurricane Ida.

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