Today ECB meeting, The tone was somber, with repeated risks on lower growth and higher inflation. Risk apetite is down 👇 because Russia-Ukraine war.
- 2022 Inflation 5.1% instead 3.2% in december
- 2023 2.1% vs 1.8%
- 2024 1.9% vs 1.8%
Most important conclusions from Lagarde meeting are:
- Growth to remain weak in Q1
- Growth revised down in near term
- Energy costs pushed up Feb inflation 31% and prices have risen further
- How long high prices will last is uncertain
- Risks to the economic outlook have increased substantially and are tilted to the downside
- We have risk of a loss of economic confidence
- Path for rates will be determined by forward guidance
Conclusion according to Lagarde is 'highly uncertain'
Rate hike could come 'months after' or 'weeks after' the end of QE. Euro is forecast to be down in short term.