Ayhan Kose, director of the World Bank's said "There is a pronounced slowdown underway, ... Policy support is being withdrawn and there is a multitude of risks ahead of us."
The World Bank is out with its latest economic forecasts:
- Sees developed economies growing 3.8% vs 4.0% in June forecasts
- 2021 global GDP forecast 5.5% vs 5.7% in June
- Sees 2021 Japan GDP at 1.7% vs 2.9% in June
- Sees 2022 Japan GDP at +2.9%
- China forecast of 5.1% vs 5.4% prior
- Sees 2022 US GDP +3.7% +4.2% prior
- Sees 2023 global GDP at 3.2%
- A surge in omicron that overwhelms healthcare systems could trim another 0.7 pp from growth
Stocks grow consistent SPX +0.92 Nasdaq 1,47 after optimistic Powel discourse
- The main thing we can do is foster a strong employment market, consistent with our inflation mandate
- In order to get a long expansion, we need price stability
- We will use our tools to bring inflation back down
- There are great benefits of a tight labor market
- It is really time for us to move away from emergency settings
- Doing so should not have a negative impact on labor market
- We're not seeing the progress on supply-side issues that we thought -- that all forecasters thought
- Over time inflation will subside, but the question is how fast
- Inflation will last until the middle of this year
- Fed has not made any decisions on the timing of normalization
- This year I expect the Fed will raise rates, end asset purchases and perhaps later this year allow the balance sheet to shrink
- We're going to learn a lot about the path of inflation
- It will take 2-4 meetings to work through balance sheet decision (4th meeting is June 15)
- Expects to see some relief on supply side later this year; if not there's a risk of inflation becoming entrenched
- We believed we would see material relief on the supply side
