Fed Loretta Mester:
- Inflation might be back to around 2.5% in 2023
- It all depends on inflation's path
- We need to get mon pol at more neutral stance and then evaluate how much further is needed
- We might see a couple months of unemployment rate rising but it won't be sustained
- There's a lot of positive momentum in the economy
- Unemployment may need to rise, may get another negative GDP print
- I will need compelling evidence that inflation is moving down
- We need to consider selling MBS
- Fed's task is not going to be smooth, unemployment may need to rise to bring inflation down
- After have point increases in June and July, Fed will have to see what more is needed based on a data in the meantime
- I don't want to rule anything out on hikes for the second half of the year
- Challenge for Fed is a large one
Fed's Williams
- If inflation is higher an interest rate that adjusts for higher inflation is needed
- Resolutely focused on restoring price stability
- We have a hot labour market
- Fed task is difficult but not insurmountable
- Fed actions will cool demand and factors contributing to supply shortages will be resolved
- Fed needs to be data dependent, adjust policy actions as circumstances warrant
- As long as demand is very strong, it's difficult to resolve supply chain issues
- You can imagine circumstances where we don't need to go much above neutral but that will be decided, we will learn on the way
Fed's Barkin:
- Fed's path will not necessarily cause a recession
- Fed needs to get inflation under control
- Inflation is high, persistent and broad based
- Getting inflation close to Fed's goal creates certainty that enables growth and supports maximum employment
- Demand is strong and looks to remain robust
- A number of pandemic-era inflation pressures will eventually settle
- Rising borrowing rates will dampen investment levels and spending on interest-rate sensitive items like housing and cars
Fed's Waller:
- We are trying to get the jobs market back to equilibrium, right now it's out of whack
- If we get some help from supply chain resolution, that's fantastic, but won't count on it
- Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy
- Inflation is too high, my job is to get it down
- This is the time to hit with rate increases, because the economy can take it
Today CPI will be a hot reading, but FED policies are changed according to data from the Economy. If will have next month's some issues with supply chains solved then it's possible to see some positive's Risk Tones in Markets
