Forex: Latest Market News

• I am carefully monitoring rotation from demand for goods back to services and whether that occurs without sparking inflation
• Expects balance sheet to shrink significantly faster than the last cycle
• Most low wage workers have seen wage growth that exceeds avg inflation
• War and covid lockdowns in China likely to extend supply chain bottlenecks and hurt growth
• After policy is more neutral, extent of additional tightening depends on the evolving outlook
• Fed will tighten 'methodically' through a series of rate hikes

Another Fed Speaks Fed's Daly: We'll be able to get inflation moving down by year-end.

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The rate hike was priced in and the market was on RISK-ON mode yesterday. Main question for the FED yesterday was, what percent will be the hike?

To stop inflation 0.5% was a better idea to hike but voters don't want to risk a recession with actual conflict between Ukraine-Russia. The surprise is 7 hikes in the dot plot instead of 5 hikes. The 10 years yield is now lower versus pre-rate decision level. Regarding the war in Ukraine, Powell said “The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.”

Regarding the US Economy, we have below stances: “Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.” You can read full press release here:

Surveying the FOMC's 18 members, the dot-plot showed that 12 FED officials predicted at least seven total rate hikes in 2022. On the high end, one FED official expects the central bank to raise rates above 3% during the year, from the level around 0.25% currently in force.

Please check below the dot plot below:

12 of 18 saw 0.9% in 2022, 11 of 18 saw 1,9% into 2023 annual median at 1.6%. Median interest rates for 2024 is 2.1%

Macroeconomic implications:

Energy Financials Sectors will outperform, we consider that it's a good time to buy bank's stocks and sell High growth stocks like tech. Instead of a short term rebound for Nasdaq's & S&P500, we see down in the long run. I can't see inflation slowing down in the long term and 0.25 it's not enough to calm but the FED was forced by the actual Geopolitical climate.

Euro will be much weaker in the long run than the dollar. Unfortunately for the EU, in the Eurozone there are plenty of headwind that affect growth: price of energy, war between Ukraine & Russia.

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Today ECB meeting, The tone was somber, with repeated risks on lower growth and higher inflation. Risk apetite is down 👇 because Russia-Ukraine war.

Inflation forecast:

1.  2022 Inflation 5.1% instead 3.2% in december 
2.  2023 2.1% vs 1.8%
3.  2024 1.9% vs 1.8%

Most important conclusions from Lagarde meeting are:

• Growth to remain weak in Q1
• Growth revised down in near term
• Energy costs pushed up Feb inflation 31% and prices have risen further
• How long high prices will last is uncertain
• Risks to the economic outlook have increased substantially and are tilted to the downside
• We have risk of a loss of economic confidence
• Path for rates will be determined by forward guidance

Conclusion according to Lagarde is  'highly uncertain'

Rate hike could come 'months after' or 'weeks after' the end of QE. Euro is forecast to be down in short term.

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After high Inflation in US and Europe, the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak, a new event like war between two major countries affected the markets. War between Ukraine and Russia pushed this morning Gold over 2000$, Oil to 124$, Soybeans 1686$ and Corn to 775$. During war times precious metals, Oil and Grains perform well instead of risk assets like stocks.

High level of sanctions from the Western Economies will destroy the Russian economy in the medium term. The Putin regime will fall in the near future because you can't win a war completely isolated from western world and you can't govern with terror and mass-media censorship.

According to the last Russian laws, you can get 15 years in jail if you transmit information from the battlefield that is not what the regime wants. All social media are closed, also internet websites like BBC, CNN, The Guardian etc. If the Putin regime it's not quickly removed, the Russian people will live like in the North Korea.

Also, some important brands like Toyota, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, VW, Oracle, SAP, Mazda, Nike, PayPal, Apple, IBM, DELL, Mitsubishi have closed the doors to the Putin regime. The Russian currency is moving down by over 30%, and the Moscow stock market is closed for three days in a row.

With the US & EU already facing the highest inflation in over four decades, triggered by the Covid lockdowns and restrictions, and the February CPI release this week anticipated to show an escalation during the previous month, the real possibility of an economic recession is even larger.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting on Mar. 15-16, will start a new interest rate hike cycle and it's not advisable to be exposed on the growth stocks. We still own high dividend stocks in the energy and finance sectors and also, we are keeping our Gold & Silver positions. We anticipate further weaknesses in stocks this month.

The United States and European allies are exploring banning imports of Russian oil, Blinken said on Sunday, and the White House coordinated with key Congressional committees moving forward with their own ban.

"A boycott would put enormous pressure on oil and gas supply that has already felt the impact of increasing demand. Prices are likely to rise in the short term, with a move toward $150 a barrel not out of the question Such a move will put further pressure on global economies, pushing inflation higher, leaving central banks debating how quickly rate hikes should be implemented." according to some analysts from CMC Markets.

"The war has clearly increased the risk of a stagflation scenario for the euro zone, where you will have a stagnating economy and much higher inflation on the back of high energy prices," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.

We stand with the Ukrainian people that fight for their freedom and we want to help mothers with children that are refugees. Right now, we are facing a real drama on the Ukrainian border as the refugee and their children are staying over three nights on -15°C without food and water.

It's estimated that there will be over 10 million refugees this year, if the conflict does not stop soon.

If you want to help refugees, you can donate on these links:

https://www.unicef.org.uk/donate/donate-now-to-protect-children-in-ukraine/ 

https://donate.unrefugees.org.uk/ukraine-emergency/~my-donation

https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-crisis-appeal

https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/europe-central-asia/ukraine

https://www.savethechildren.org.uk/

https://donate.careinternational.org.uk/page/100263/donate/1?ea.tracking.id=e75_orgsocial

https://www.peopleinneed.net/

https://msf.org.uk/

You can help Ukraine Army here:

https://www.portmone.com.ua/r3/uk/terminal/index/index/id/118103/

Слава Україні! (Slava Ukraini!)

Glory to Ukraine!

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The ADP job data surprised to the downside this month: - 301K versus +200K estimate.

All economic branches were down this month:

• Goods -27K
• Manufacturing -21K
• Services -274K
• Transportation and Utilities -62K
• Leisure and Hospitality -154K
• Construction -10 K (Also Canadian Building Permit felt -0.3 over estimate)
• Education & Health Services -15 K
• Small firms -144K decline
• Medium firms -59K decline
• Large firms -98K decline

The fell was the largest since April 2020 because Omicron outbreak, according to FED officials.

BOE has increased official bank rate by 0.25 points to 0.5%, today.

Eurozone inflation hits new record 5,1% CPI versus 4,4% expected (Highest since 30 years), that will put more pressure on ECB today.

Bidden sent 3k US Soldiers to Romania Poland and Bulgaria.

IMF Chief Georgieva: Geopolitical tensions make uncertain outlook for global economy.

Regarding our portfolio, we shrink our exposure to growth stocks and closed some losing positions on companies that have large debts or lower growth expectation (ASAN, BILL, W, NVCR, RDFN), and further, we closed two days ago our grains exposure with 20% percent profits in three months. We expect to 💪 our dividend stock's exposure's and add to precious metal positions if we see another 2k points decrease in Gold and Silver after FED rate increases. We think market will retest soon, lower point from January and US Dollar 💵 will stay in upper zone. US dollar speculative positioning and bullish sentiment are surging. SP500 Retest Of January Lows  is about to begin.

You can check real-time  our risk-on/off tone indicator.

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Bank of America Research announce another rally for USD after today FOMC policy meeting.

"The Fed will announce the last round of asset purchases at the Jan FOMC meeting, and we see risk for a further hawkish pivot...Chair Powell is likely to signal the first hike at the March meeting and note that every meeting is live,"

"In our view, a hawkish FOMC this week should serve as a key catalyst for another leg of US dollar appreciation against lower beta FX . Our forecasts for EUR/USD and USD/JPY this year remain 1.10 and 118, respectively, and we see the risks of attaining that sooner" BofA adds.

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SPX gave back the gains at the end of the day, because investors lost conviction that an early rally had legs. Risk-On sentiment didn't last after China decreased rates. Fears of inflation and higher interest rates in accordance with Geo-Political conflict between Ukraine & Russia have sent markets in red at end of the session.

Concern that the Federal Reserve will aggressively move to raise rates this year is a much more powerful catalyst than Chinese bank intervention and stocks Earnings. Investors have been concerned about rising rates because they raise borrowing costs and could dent global growth prospects and douse the earnings outlook for companies.

Analysts at ING said geopolitical risks, notably the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine, could continue to add to pressure on rising rates concerns.

Gold & Silver touched new highs lifted by worries surrounding inflation and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Gold 1,842 & Silver 24.63 gains were unexpected in the short term when bonds are up and Interest rates are expected to grow but geopolitical context is also an important catalyst.

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We maintain our bearish bias on CHF.

Our expectation for four Fed rate hikes in 2022 means we now see US 10yr yields at 2.20% by 2Q22. The SNB remains one of the most dovish central banks in the G10, and we think widening yield differentials should keep putting downward pressure on CHF. We expect the further upside momentum in German Bunds yields should also weigh on CHF. Positioning in EUR/CHF has normalised somewhat compared to the beginning of the year but remains net short.

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Goldman Sachs change their growth forecast for US from 5%-6% in 2021 to 3,4% in 2022 because of two factors:

• spread of Omicron Variant
• diminishing expectations for fiscal stimulus

Deloitte projects 4% GDP instead of Reserve Bank of Australia 5,5% 

Deloitte Access Economics says the Omicron variant manes the RBA forecast is too optimistic because omicron is Spreading at a rapid rate and half the workforce would likely miss an extra week of work in H1 of 2022.

But with optimism Deloitte inform us that Omicron would not cause the same economic problems as the first two waves.

Will economy drop into 2022, what is your opinion?!

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“Based on rhetoric from the Bank of Canada in December, it was clear that labour market dynamics and outperforming economic data had created heightened concerns at the Bank that the output gap was closing more rapidly than expected,” wrote Silvana Dimino, a New York-based economist at J.P. Morgan, in a report to clients Tuesday

Dimino sees the Bank raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent in January; her team previously called for the first move in April. She expects there will be five rate hikes this year, which would push the benchmark rate to 1.5 per cent by year-end.

She also expects the Bank to begin a modest run off of its balance sheet in the second half of this year.

As of mid-day Wednesday, overnight index swaps pegged the probability of a January rate hike in Canada at 46 per cent.

In October, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem indicated he would not tighten policy until the economic recovery was complete – something he expected to happen in the “middle quarters” of this year. But data since then suggest the economy has been outperforming.

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• Prior was 6.2%
• m/m CPI +0.5% vs +0.4% expected
• Prior m/m reading was +0.8%
• Real weekly earnings +0.1% vs -0.2% prior (prior revised to -0.4%)

Core inflation:

• Ex food and energy +5.5% vs +5.4% y/y expected
• Prior ex food and energy +4.9%
• Core m/m +0.6% vs +0.5% exp
• Prior core m/m +0.5%

Some notable categories:

• New vehicles +1.0% m/m
• Used cars and trucks +3.5% m/m (and +37.3% y/y)
• Apparel +1.7%
• Shelter +0.4%
• Gasoline -0.5%
• Food +0.5%

Gold is UP 

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Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle, speaking before the Australian Parliament's House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics

Debelle says the Bank is spending a fair bit of its time assessing Evergrande. He expects Chinese authorities might well allow a limited default to occur, their 'tolerance' for a default is higher than in previous years as long as the consequences are limited.

Says Chinese authorities are well informed of the EV situation and it'll resolve how they want it to resolve.

China Evergrande main unit Hengda Real Estate will make coupon payments for onshore bonds due tomorrow

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Our market forecasts through the balance of the year assume that US Treasury yields will rise but that the US Dollar will depreciate against most crosses.

The Dollar's correlation with Treasury yields tends to vary over time, and depends on the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals driving rates and FX markets

In a period of rising cyclical optimism, as we expect over the near term, we should anticipate a negative correlation, with rising rates associated with broad Dollar weakness

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The ECB has a monetary policy announcement on Thursday and many investors are wondering if euro will fall as the CAD or AUD.ECB was one of the most dovish central bank because of COVID spread and low performance economy.

What we need to watch today:

• Consensus looks for a slowdown in the pace of PEPP purchases during Q4
• A decision on the future of PEPP is not expected to take place at the upcoming meeting
• Economic forecasts are set to see upgrades to 2021 growth and inflation. 2023 inflation is set to remain sub-target

Focus for PEPP will instead fall on the Q4 pace of purchases which is set to be lowered from the current "significantly higher" level of EUR 80bln/month

The press conference will likely see President Lagarde caution that any slowing in the pace of purchases for PEPP will not be regarded as a "taper" as purchases are not on track to reach zero and policymakers will vow to maintain favorable financing conditions.

Policymakers were not expecting to make a decision on the future of PEPP bond purchases in September given the persistent uncertainty posed by the pandemic but a decision in October or December was seen as more likely.

Chart below you can see nomura forecast on PEPP

What about Rates

Rates according to Lagarde will “remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term."

Ing case scenario on ECB Forecast

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BoE's Broadbent says he thinks conditions for a rate rise have been met, but need to focus on medium term

BoE's Ramsden says necessary but not sufficient condition for a rate rise have been met

BoE's Bailey says he thinks minimum conditions for a rate rise have been met, but not sufficient for one

BoE's Tenreyro says she does not think guidance conditions for a rate rise have been met

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BoE's Bailey says persistence of COVID means there has not been expected rebalancing of demand between goods and services, pushing inflation higher than expected

• Semiconductor shortage has led to shortage of new cars and pushing up second than car prices as well in UK.
• Higher than anticipated inflation underlines persistence of COVID.
• Overall economic impact of COVID in UK has attenuated.
• Seeing some short-term levelling off of recovery.
• Do not think inflation will be persistent.
• Think it is unlikely commodity prices will continue to rise.
• Expect supply bottlenecks to sort themselves out.
• Large concern is getting labour market vacancies filled.
• End of furlough scheme should help fill vaccines.
• He has a bit more concern regarding persistence of labour market pressures.
• Risks on both sides to inflation returning to target over medium term.
• Market curve does point to some increase in interest rates.

GBP Going UP 20 pips on news reaction

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The BoC leaves its Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25% as expected, rate of QE unchanged as expected; forward guidance unchanged as expected

• The Bank continues to expect the economy to strengthen in the second half of 2021, although the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections and ongoing supply bottlenecks could weigh on the recovery.
• Reiterates "The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity"
• "We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective."
• "In Canada, GDP contracted by about 1 percent in the second quarter, weaker than anticipated in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR)."

  CAD is going in red worst performance from all currencies with -0.29% today

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Fed's Bullard (2022 voter) says Fed should proceed with tapering despite the weak US jobs data, while he dismissed concerns the rebound in the labour market was faltering and said there is plenty of demand for workers. USD strength after comments

• Note Bullard is the first Fed official to speak following Friday's NFPs.
• Headline nonfarm payrolls disappointed expectations in August, printing 235k (exp. 750k); the unemployment rate fell by 0.2ppts, in line with the consensus, to 5.2%. Other measures of slack improved in the month, with the U6 rate of underemployment falling to 8.8% from 9.2%, the employment-population ratio, which is a metric that is closely watched Fed officials, rose to 58.5% from 58.4% (vs pre-pandemic 61.1%), although the participation rate, which the Fed also factors into its deliberations, was unchanged at 61.7%. The wages data saw average hourly earnings rising +0.6% M/M (exp. +0.3%), lifting the annual rate to 4.3% (from 4.1%); average workweek hours declined a little to 34.7hrs from 34.8hrs. Analysts noted that the lower than consensus headline was hinted at by several proxies, including the Homebase Survey, the ISM survey data (only manufacturing was available ahead of the NFP report), as well as the Conference Board's gauge of consumer confidence, which all gave the impression that Delta fears were contributing to labour market tightness. Ahead, Pantheon Macroeconomics is expecting further weakness in the September data too, and is also flagging concerns over the prospects of an October revival, given that labour market behaviour lags cases, and PM says cases are yet to peak. "Before Delta, we were looking for 1M-plus payroll gains in the fall, but that’s now going to be a real struggle, suggesting that Chair Powell will be in no hurry to be pushed into tapering while the labor market picture so uncertain," Pantheon writes, "we think the announcement comes in December, but the FOMC could easily be forced to wait until January." Meanwhile, many have been looking for evidence that the inflation upside in recent months was more persistent than the Fed was acknowledging, and were looking for this evidence within the wages metrics (the idea is that Americans would begin to demand higher compensation amid rising price pressures, which could feed into a loop of inflation becoming more persistent). While this month's data may allude to that theme, Pantheon warns that while the +0.6% M/M jump is startling, "it overstates the trend because the data are not mix-adjusted, so a month with no net job gains in the low-paid leisure and hospitality sector will see a bigger increase in AHE than a month with more even payroll growth." Even so, the consultancy notes that wage gains have averaged +5.8% Y/Y in the three-months to August vs the previous three months, and while it is high, PM argues that "this ignores the idea the faster productivity growth potentially raises the Fed’s tolerance for faster wage growth; ultimately, what matters is unit labour costs, which remain contained."

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• The Board's decision to extend the bond purchases at $4 billion a week until at least February 2022 reflects the delay in the economic recovery and the increased uncertainty associated with the Delta outbreak.
• This setback to the economic expansion is expected to be only temporary. The Delta outbreak is expected to delay, but not derail, the recovery.
• The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to achieve a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.
• This bounce-back and it is likely to be slower than that earlier in the year.

Note, one of the major newswires reported the QE decision as a "hold", although the official RBA release states "purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week and to continue the purchases at this rate until at least mid February 2022."

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Goldman Sachs lowers Q4 2021 GDP growth forecast to 5.5% from 6.5% and sees 2021 GDP growth at 5.7%, while it raised Q4 2022 GDP to 3.7% from 3.0% and sees 2022 GDP growth at 4.6%.

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